Energy Procurement Blog
Information regarding the forces behind the energy market.
While cleaning up my old blogs, I came across my blog from August 29, 2011 where I asked if this was the time to buy. We have records going back for years showing how September typically offers the lowest prices in natural gas. Easy to understand why - the hot summer is behind us and the winter is an unknown.
Who would have known that this winter was going to be so unseasonably warm across the country! Looking back at the NYMEX last day settle for September, we were looking at $3.85 for natural gas. Today, January 16, 2012, the NYMEX price is $2.55!
To find prices this low for this time of the year, we had to go back to January of 2000. Interestingly enough, in the following year, January natural gas prices settled at $9.978! The lowest price over the last 20 years was $1.639 in January of 1995. So, what was the lowest natural gas price in the last 20 years, regardless of the month? It was $1.046 set in February of 1992! The average price for natural gas that year was $1.809!
So, is now the time to buy? You have to go back at least 10 years to see lower prices than we are experiencing now. Weather forecasts are calling for above average temperatures for the rest of the winter and storage is not being tapped that hard. Give us your current usage and supply data and we can run an analysis on how to buy!
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